TY - JOUR
T1 - TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT
T2 - A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA
AU - Hughes, Nick
AU - Nyambe-Mubanga, Mulima
AU - Mapulanga, Willard
AU - Hazemba, Malonga
AU - Chileshe, Stephen
AU - Tembo, Bernard
AU - Watson, Jim
AU - Cronin, Jennifer
AU - Pye, Steve
AU - Tomei, Julia
AU - Tesfamichael, Meron
AU - Mulugetta, Yacob
AU - Bawakyillenuo, Simon
AU - Crentsil, Aba Obrumah
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Authors.
PY - 2025/12
Y1 - 2025/12
N2 - Climate compatible development aims to align climate change mitigation and adaptation with social and economic development. Successful climate compatible development must be socially inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Zambia is a country at the frontline of climate change, with multiple development challenges, and ambitions to pursue a climate compatible development pathway. Scenarios are tools with a long history of application in strategic planning, and may be suitable tools to help countries explore climate compatible development. Therefore, we developed a novel participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore pathways of resilient and inclusive climate compatible development for Zambia. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, and combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, investment decisions and economic development strategies, which maintains the viability of rural livelihoods and slows the urbanisation trend. The scenarios provide a framework for considering opportunities and risks in planning for climate compatible development, and suggest that Zambian decision-makers should: test infrastructure investments and long-term economic plans for both climate and economic resilience; pursue mutually beneficial, equitable development partnerships with like-minded international partners; and appropriately allocate responsibility to different scales of governance and ensure coordination between them. The issues highlighted by the scenarios are of relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The paper demonstrates that a participatory, mixed-method scenario approach provides a useful framework to explore climate compatible development.
AB - Climate compatible development aims to align climate change mitigation and adaptation with social and economic development. Successful climate compatible development must be socially inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Zambia is a country at the frontline of climate change, with multiple development challenges, and ambitions to pursue a climate compatible development pathway. Scenarios are tools with a long history of application in strategic planning, and may be suitable tools to help countries explore climate compatible development. Therefore, we developed a novel participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore pathways of resilient and inclusive climate compatible development for Zambia. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, and combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, investment decisions and economic development strategies, which maintains the viability of rural livelihoods and slows the urbanisation trend. The scenarios provide a framework for considering opportunities and risks in planning for climate compatible development, and suggest that Zambian decision-makers should: test infrastructure investments and long-term economic plans for both climate and economic resilience; pursue mutually beneficial, equitable development partnerships with like-minded international partners; and appropriately allocate responsibility to different scales of governance and ensure coordination between them. The issues highlighted by the scenarios are of relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The paper demonstrates that a participatory, mixed-method scenario approach provides a useful framework to explore climate compatible development.
KW - Climate Compatible Development
KW - Inclusive
KW - Mixed-Method
KW - Participatory
KW - Resilient
KW - Scenario
KW - Zambia
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105022167886
U2 - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072
DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105022167886
SN - 0959-3780
VL - 95
JO - Global Environmental Change
JF - Global Environmental Change
M1 - 103072
ER -
