TY - JOUR
T1 - Renewable electricity generation target setting in developing countries
T2 - Modeling, policy, and analysis
AU - Afful-Dadzie, Anthony
AU - Afful-Dadzie, Eric
AU - Abbey, Nii Asafoatse
AU - Owusu, Bright Ansah
AU - Awudu, Iddrisu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 International Energy Initiative
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - Many countries have set renewable energy targets in their electricity supply mix to encourage investments in renewable energy technologies. In developing countries, however, many of such targets are either abandoned or fall far short of the target date, primarily due to issues of financing, cost of electricity, and level of unmet demand. This paper presents a Generation Expansion Planning model that can be used to assess such issues when setting a renewable electricity generation target. In particular, the model can be used by developing countries to set renewable electricity generation targets that are in line with their financial ability and thus, stand a higher chance of being achieved. Additionally, the analysis offered can inform developing countries of the cost and benefits of a renewable electricity generation target policy. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated using Ghana as a case. The results indicate that Ghana will need a budget of not less than 1% of its GDP for generation capacity investment if it desires to achieve its 10% renewable electricity generation target by 2030 while keeping unmet demand at reasonable levels. If Ghana however enforces the target at its current capacity investment levels, it risks raising unmet demand levels by an average of 4% per year and cost of electricity provision by about US$224 million annually between 2019 and 2030 when compared to the absence of a renewable electricity generation target.
AB - Many countries have set renewable energy targets in their electricity supply mix to encourage investments in renewable energy technologies. In developing countries, however, many of such targets are either abandoned or fall far short of the target date, primarily due to issues of financing, cost of electricity, and level of unmet demand. This paper presents a Generation Expansion Planning model that can be used to assess such issues when setting a renewable electricity generation target. In particular, the model can be used by developing countries to set renewable electricity generation targets that are in line with their financial ability and thus, stand a higher chance of being achieved. Additionally, the analysis offered can inform developing countries of the cost and benefits of a renewable electricity generation target policy. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated using Ghana as a case. The results indicate that Ghana will need a budget of not less than 1% of its GDP for generation capacity investment if it desires to achieve its 10% renewable electricity generation target by 2030 while keeping unmet demand at reasonable levels. If Ghana however enforces the target at its current capacity investment levels, it risks raising unmet demand levels by an average of 4% per year and cost of electricity provision by about US$224 million annually between 2019 and 2030 when compared to the absence of a renewable electricity generation target.
KW - Budget constraints
KW - Developing countries
KW - Generation capacity planning
KW - Renewable electricity target
KW - Renewable energy
KW - Unmet demand
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091965563&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.esd.2020.09.003
DO - 10.1016/j.esd.2020.09.003
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85091965563
SN - 0973-0826
VL - 59
SP - 83
EP - 96
JO - Energy for Sustainable Development
JF - Energy for Sustainable Development
ER -