TY - JOUR
T1 - Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year
T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
AU - GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators
AU - Bryazka, Dana
AU - Reitsma, Marissa B.
AU - Griswold, Max G.
AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
AU - Abbafati, Cristiana
AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen
AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab
AU - Abdoli, Amir
AU - Abdollahi, Mohammad
AU - Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md
AU - Abhilash, E. S.
AU - Abu-Gharbieh, Eman
AU - Acuna, Juan Manuel
AU - Addolorato, Giovanni
AU - Adebayo, Oladimeji M.
AU - Adekanmbi, Victor
AU - Adhikari, Kishor
AU - Adhikari, Sangeet
AU - Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
AU - Afzal, Saira
AU - Agegnehu, Wubetu Yimam
AU - Aggarwal, Manik
AU - Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku
AU - Ahmad, Araz Ramazan
AU - Ahmad, Sajjad
AU - Ahmad, Tauseef
AU - Ahmadi, Ali
AU - Ahmadi, Sepideh
AU - Ahmed, Haroon
AU - Ahmed Rashid, Tarik
AU - Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet
AU - Al Hamad, Hanadi
AU - Alam, Md Zakiul
AU - Alem, Dejene Tsegaye
AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis
AU - Alimohamadi, Yousef
AU - Alizadeh, Atiyeh
AU - Allel, Kasim
AU - Alonso, Jordi
AU - Alvand, Saba
AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
AU - Amare, Firehiwot
AU - Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena
AU - Amiri, Sohrab
AU - Ancuceanu, Robert
AU - Anderson, Jason A.
AU - Andrei, Catalina Liliana
AU - Andrei, Tudorel
AU - Arabloo, Jalal
AU - Arshad, Muhammad
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
PY - 2022/7/16
Y1 - 2022/7/16
N2 - Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
AB - Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85134328270
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9
M3 - Article
C2 - 35843246
AN - SCOPUS:85134328270
SN - 0140-6736
VL - 400
SP - 185
EP - 235
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 10347
ER -
SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being