Modelling the productivity of opportunity crops across Africa under climate change in support of the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils

Addressing future agricultural challenges requires breeding cultivars with improved tolerance to evolving climatic conditions. Many African traditional and indigenous ‘opportunity crops’ have shown increased resilience to climate hazards, yet have received minimal developmental investment. Here the SIMPLE process-based crop model is used to assess the impact of future climate change on the productivity of 5 staple crops and 19 African opportunity crops under low- and high-emissions scenario projections. Roots and tubers show the highest resiliency, while vegetables are the most vulnerable. Cassava, teff, grass pea, sesame seed and finger millet are projected to have the largest productivity increases, while mung bean, lablab, amaranth, Bambara groundnut and maize productivity are projected to decrease substantially. Soybean and cowpea, important cash crops in Africa, are projected to have comparable losses. Crops grown in the Sahel appear most susceptible to climate change, while crops in East and Central Africa show greater resilience. These findings guide regional investments in opportunity crop development and support their inclusion in adaptation measures.