Modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal variation in the risk of chronic malnutrition among under-five children in Ghana

Justice Moses K. Aheto, Benjamin M. Taylor, Thomas J. Keegan, Peter J. Diggle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Spatio-temporal variation in under-5-year-old children malnutrition remains unstudied in most developing countries like Ghana. This study explores and forecasts the spatio-temporal patterns in childhood chronic malnutrition among these children. We also investigate the effect of maternal education on childhood malnutrition. Methods: We analysed data on 10,036 children residing in 1516 geographic locations. A spatio-temporal model was fitted to the data and was used to produce predictive maps of spatio-temporal variation in the probability of stunting. Results: The study found substantial spatio-temporal variation in the prevalence of stunting. Also, higher levels of mother's education were associated with decreased risk of being stunted. Conclusion: Our spatio-temporal model captured variations in childhood stunting over place and time. Our method facilitates and enriches modelling and forecasting of future stunting prevalence to identify areas at high risk. Improving maternal education could be given greater consideration within an overall strategy for addressing childhood malnutrition.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)37-46
Number of pages10
JournalSpatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Volume21
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Childhood malnutrition
  • Public health
  • Spatio-temporal modelling

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