Malaria Transmission Intensity Likely Modifies RTS, S/AS01 Efficacy Due to a Rebound Effect in Ghana, Malawi, and Gabon

Background. RTS,S/AS01 is the first malaria vaccine to be approved and recommended for widespread implementation by the World Health Organization (WHO). Trials reported lower vaccine efficacies in higher-incidence sites, potentially due to a “rebound” in malaria cases in vaccinated children. When naturally acquired protection in the control group rises and vaccine protection in the vaccinated wanes concurrently, malaria incidence can become greater in the vaccinated than in the control group, resulting in negative vaccine efficacies. Methods. Using data from the 2009–2014 phase III trial (NCT00866619) in Lilongwe, Malawi; Kintampo, Ghana; and Lambaréné, Gabon, we evaluate this hypothesis by estimating malaria incidence in each vaccine group over time and in varying transmission settings. After estimating transmission intensities using ecological variables, we fit models with 3-way interactions between vaccination, time, and transmission intensity. Results. Over time, incidence decreased in the control group and increased in the vaccine group. Three-dose efficacy in the lowest-transmission-intensity group (0.25 cases per person-year [CPPY]) decreased from 88.2% to 15.0% over 4.5 years, compared with 81.6% to −27.7% in the highest-transmission-intensity group (3 CPPY). Conclusions. These findings suggest that interventions, including the fourth RTS,S dose, that protect vaccinated individuals during the potential rebound period should be implemented for high-transmission settings.