Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Climate Change on Food and Agricultural Production in Africa: Any Role for Political Stability?

Climate change and political instability have implications for food and agricultural production. Africa is often described as one of the most vulnerable continents to the impacts of climate change, political instability, and conflicts. However, empirical evidence on the impacts of climate change, political instability, and violent conflicts on food and agricultural production is scanty and mixed. A better understanding of the impacts of climate change and political instability on food and agricultural production on the continent is needed to achieve some of the sustainable development goals. This paper investigates the impacts of climate change and political instability on food and agricultural production in Africa. The study relied on panel data from 43 countries spanning a period of 20 years (2000–2019). The data were obtained from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, World Development Indicators, and FAOSTAT databases. Using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, temperature, and rainfall data significantly decreased the food production index, livestock production index, cereal production, and crop production index in the long run. Also, we find that total greenhouse gas emissions significantly increased the food production index, livestock production index, cereal production, total fisheries production, and crop production index in the long run. Political stability significantly increased the livestock production index, cereal production, and total fisheries production in the long run, while employment in agriculture significantly increased the food production index, crop production index, and total fisheries production in the long run. We conclude that climate change and political stability impact agricultural production in Africa.