Investigating the significance of bellwether effect to improve software effort estimation

Solomon Mensah, Jacky Keung, Stephen G. MacDonell, Michael F. Bosu, Kwabena E. Bennin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Bellwether effect refers to the existence of exemplary projects (called the Bellwether) within a historical dataset to be used for improved prediction performance. Recent studies have shown an implicit assumption of using recently completed projects (referred to as moving window) for improved prediction accuracy. In this paper, we investigate the Bellwether effect on software effort estimation accuracy using moving windows. The existence of the Bellwether was empirically proven based on six postulations. We apply statistical stratification and Markov chain methodology to select the Bellwether moving window. The resulting Bellwether moving window is used to predict the software effort of a new project. Empirical results show that Bellwether effect exist in chronological datasets with a set of exemplary and recently completed projects representing the Bellwether moving window. Result from this study has shown that the use of Bellwether moving window with the Gaussian weighting function significantly improve the prediction accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2017 IEEE International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability and Security, QRS 2017
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages340-351
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9781538605929
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Aug 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event17th IEEE International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability and Security, QRS 2017 - Prague
Duration: 25 Jul 201729 Jul 2017

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2017 IEEE International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability and Security, QRS 2017

Conference

Conference17th IEEE International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability and Security, QRS 2017
Country/TerritoryCzech Republic
CityPrague
Period25/07/1729/07/17

Keywords

  • Bellwether Effect
  • Bellwether moving window
  • Chronological dataset
  • Markov chains

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