Flood experience and risk predictability paradox of households: Implications for structural risk reduction and urban planning in Ghana, Africa

Urban floods remain among the most persistent threats to human settlements globally. Yet in Sub-Saharan Africa, the relative influence of geophysical, socio-demographic, and adaptive factors in shaping household flood exposure remains poorly understood. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the flood experiences of 1050 households in Ghana's Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), a rapidly urbanizing coastal region facing recurrent hydrometeorological extremes. Going beyond conventional vulnerability mapping, the study integrates physical, social, and behavioural dimensions to statistically assess how household characteristics help predict flood exposure. The results reveal that geophysical attributes, particularly housing elevation, proximity to drainage channels, and wall materials are the most consistent predictors of flood incidence. In contrast, socio-demographic factors such as age, education, sex of household head, and adaptive capacity exert limited explanatory influence. Paradoxically, households capable of predicting floods are more likely to experience them, reflecting a cycle of learned exposure rather than effective avoidance. This finding challenges the notion that experiential knowledge alone enhances resilience. Policy implications point to the urgent need for elevation-based zoning, improved drainage infrastructure, and the enforcement of resilient building codes across municipalities. Moreover, integrating household awareness with early warning systems and district-scale structural interventions can convert local predictive capacity into actionable prevention. Strengthening institutional coordination and spatial planning within flood-prone districts is thus vital to achieving equitable, long-term coastal urban resilience. The study reframes resilience as important relational outcome of governance inertia, offering an African counterpoint that enriches ongoing discourse on urban resilience and governance of coastal flood risk.