Detecting and predicting the impact of Frban planning on land FSE/land cover change in Ashi River watershed, China

Vitus Tankpa, Li Wang, Gerald A.B. Yiran, Xiaomeng Guo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Growing demand for sources of clean water and changing land use and land cover (LULC) practices threatens water resources globally. LULC change impacts negatively on watershed hydrological regime and water quality. Addressing this issue requires best practices to sustainable watershed management with in-depth information on LULC characteristics. This information can be produced by analyzing the status of LULC change and predicting future LULC status under different scenarios at watershed scale. This study therefore, analyzes the LULC in Ashi river watershed of China, from 1990 to 2014. Using Landsat images, LULC change pattern was evaluated through supervised and unsupervised classification concept. Markov-Cellular Automata integrated approach was used to predict LULC distribution of 2014 and authenticated with the actual LULC map of 2014. The results revealed urban, water, agriculture, open canopy and other vegetation experienced an increment from 1990 to 2014 by 227%, 267%, 10%, 63% and 260% respectively, with urban and agriculture showing consistency in increasing trend and a decline in closed canopy forest area by 79%. The predicted LULC for 2030 based on worst-case scenarios indicated more urbanization and agriculture with a potential for expansion to areas near streams and forest, while on best-case scenario indicates a controlled expansion trend of urban and agriculture along the streams and regeneration of closed canopy along the main streams. This study throws an insight for successful implementation of current and future water control program of the Ashi River, as well a guide to other studies aimed at proactive water resource management.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)7933-7944
Number of pages12
JournalFresenius Environmental Bulletin
Volume28
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Keywords

  • Change detection
  • Land use/land cover change
  • Markov-CA Model
  • Prediction
  • Scenario

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