Cropland, Competing Land Use, and Food Security Implications: Seven-Decade Case Analysis of USA

Land is a finite global resource supporting the growing population with food, shelter, recreation, and other environmental benefits. The United States has over 10% of global arable land, contributing to domestic and global food security. The number of farms in the United States has steadily declined with a relatively stable average farm size. Increasing population growth, pressure on food production and environmental sustainability are concerns for cropland decline and food security. This study analyzed the effects of competing land use, agricultural innovation and technology, climate change, and government policy on cropland. Seven decades (1945–2017) of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture datasets were used as a case study to analyze drivers of cropland changes. The total amount of cropland recorded a 13% reduction in 2017 from 1945. Cropland used for pasture decreased by 72%, representing the most substantial proportional decline among the cropland categories. Competing land uses to cropland such as rural parks and wildlife increased over 1000%, urbanized land increased by 395%, and land designated for defense and industrial areas rose by 13% by 2017. The divergence between total factor productivity and farm inputs suggests that productivity gains were driven primarily by technological advancements rather than increased resource use. Linkages were drawn from several studies on climate change and population growth’s negative impact on cropland, whereas government policies and priorities can either influence cropland decline or increase, based on how the policies are structured. This study underscores a strategic planning approach that incorporates technological innovation, climate adaptation, and sustainable land management to balance agricultural output with competing land needs without compromising food security for the growing global population.