TY - JOUR
T1 - Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
AU - Van Ittersum, Martin K.
AU - Van Bussel, Lenny G.J.
AU - Wolf, Joost
AU - Grassini, Patricio
AU - Van Wart, Justin
AU - Guilpart, Nicolas
AU - Claessens, Lieven
AU - De Groot, Hugo
AU - Wiebe, Keith
AU - Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
AU - Yang, Haishun
AU - Boogaard, Hendrik
AU - Van Oort, Pepijn A.J.
AU - Van Loon, Marloes P.
AU - Saito, Kazuki
AU - Adimo, Ochieng
AU - Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel
AU - Agali, Alhassane
AU - Bala, Abdullahi
AU - Chikowo, Regis
AU - Kaizzi, Kayuki
AU - Kouressy, Mamoutou
AU - Makoi, Joachim H.J.R.
AU - Ouattara, Korodjouma
AU - Tesfaye, Kindie
AU - Cassman, Kenneth G.
PY - 2016/12/27
Y1 - 2016/12/27
N2 - Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
AB - Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
KW - Cereals
KW - Food availability
KW - Food security
KW - Food self-sufficiency
KW - Yield gaps
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85007467274&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1610359113
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1610359113
M3 - Article
C2 - 27956604
AN - SCOPUS:85007467274
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 113
SP - 14964
EP - 14969
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 52
ER -