Analysis of the dynamics of rabies in North Shewa, Ethiopia

In this paper, authors proposed and developed a deterministic model that explains the dynamics of rabies infection in human and dog populations in North Shewa, Ethiopia. The rabies model was analysed by determining a feasible region, positivity of the solution set, basic reproductive number, equilibrium points and their stability. Next Generation Matrix approach was employed in computing the basic reproduction number and its entirely dependent on the parameters of dog population. Its the threshold value that determines the dynamics of rabies transmission in North Shewa, Ethiopia. It was established that whenever R₀ < 1, rabies will die out from the population and whenever R₀ > 1, rabies persists in the population. Contribution each parameter was conducted using sensitivity analysis of the parameter values of the basic reproductive number. Some parameters were more sensitive and responsible for the spread of rabies in North Shewa region of Ethiopia. Moreover, stability analysis approach was employed to determine the disease free and endemic equilibrium of the rabies model. The results of the numerical simulation showed that as the contact rate and infecton rate increases, the disease spread faster. Moreover, as the removal rate and treatment rate increases, the disease spread decreases.