Achieving global mortality reduction targets and universal health coverage: The impact of COVID-19

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens progress toward a “grand convergence” in global health—universal reduction in deaths from infections and maternal and child health conditions to low levels—and toward achieving universal health coverage (UHC). Our analysis suggests that COVID-19 will exacerbate the difficulty of achieving grand convergence targets for tuberculosis (TB), maternal mortality, and, probably, for under-5 mortality. HIV targets are likely to be met. By 2035, our analysis suggests that the public sectors of low-income countries (LICs) would only be able to finance about a third of the costs of a package of 120 essential non-COVID-19 health interventions through domestic sources, unless the country increases significantly the priority assigned to the health sector; lower middle-income countries (LMICs) would likewise only be able to finance a little less than half. The likelihood of getting back on track for reaching grand convergence and UHC will depend on (i) how quickly COVID-19 vaccines can be deployed in LICs and LMICs; (ii) how much additional public sector health financing can be mobilized from external and domestic sources; and (iii) whether countries can rapidly strengthen and focus their health delivery systems.