Accounting for Weather Variability in Farm Management Resource Allocation in Northern Ghana: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Opeyemi Obafemi Adelesi, Yean Uk Kim, Heidi Webber, Peter Zander, Johannes Schuler, Seyed Ali Hosseini-Yekani, Dilys Sefakor MacCarthy, Alhassan Lansah Abdulai, Karin van der Wiel, Pierre C.Sibiry Traore, Samuel Godfried Kwasi Adiku

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana face challenges due to weather variability and market volatility, hindering their ability to invest in sustainable intensification options. Modeling can help understand the relationships between productivity, environmental, and economical aspects, but few models have explored the effects of weather variability on crop management and resource allocation. This study introduces an integrated modeling approach to optimize resource allocation for smallholder mixed crop and livestock farming systems in Northern Ghana. The model combines a process-based crop model, farm simulation model, and annual optimization model. Crop model simulations are driven by a large ensemble of weather time series for two scenarios: good and bad weather. The model accounts for the effects of climate risks on farm management decisions, which can help in supporting investments in sustainable intensification practices, thereby bringing smallholder farmers out of poverty traps. The model was simulated for three different farm types represented in the region. The results suggest that farmers could increase their income by allocating more than 80% of their land to cash crops such as rice, groundnut, and soybeans. The optimized cropping patterns have an over 50% probability of increasing farm income, particularly under bad weather scenarios, compared with current cropping systems.

Original languageEnglish
Article number7386
JournalSustainability (Switzerland)
Volume15
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2023

Keywords

  • CLEM
  • Northern Ghana
  • SIMPLACE
  • bio-economic farm model
  • integrated model
  • mixed cropping system
  • weather risk

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