A predictive study of heat wave characteristics and their spatio-temporal trends in climatic zones of Nigeria

D. Saberma Ragatoa; K. O. Ogunjobi; A. A. Okhimamhe; Nana Ama Browne Klutse; Benjamin L. Lamptey

doi:10.1007/s40808-018-0480-7

A predictive study of heat wave characteristics and their spatio-temporal trends in climatic zones of Nigeria

D. Saberma Ragatoa, K. O. Ogunjobi, A. A. Okhimamhe, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Benjamin L. Lamptey

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Heat waves (HWs) have always been the silent natural disaster but the most impactful, especially concerning health and agriculture. A crucial question is being asked after the evidence has shown increases in the climate extreme events especially the temperature: how will the future climate conditions be? The present investigation examines and analyzes the future occurrence and trend of HWs in the five climatic zones of Nigeria. WRF model output extracted from CORDEX-Africa for the period 2018–2100 was compiled using maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Different HW characteristics were studied: the heat wave number, the duration, the frequency, the amplitude and the magnitude exploiting four different definitions, the temperature based 90th percentile thresholds (TN90 and TX90), the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The prediction under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has shown a spatial increase in the frequency and magnitude of HWs during different periods. In the 2050s, there will be a spatial increase and also an increase in the duration of HWs in the study area. The HWMId revealed Ultra extreme HWs when the Coastal zone will be having Super extreme HWs. The RCP8.5 revealed more dramatic and dreadful HWs from 2073. The trend showed significant increasing trends in the major parts of the country.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1125-1151
Number of pages	27
Journal	Modeling Earth Systems and Environment
Volume	4
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0480-7
Publication status	Published - 1 Sep 2018
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

90th percentile
Climate change
Excess heat factor
Extreme events
Heat wave magnitude index
Heat waves

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1007/s40808-018-0480-7

Cite this

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title = "A predictive study of heat wave characteristics and their spatio-temporal trends in climatic zones of Nigeria",

abstract = "Heat waves (HWs) have always been the silent natural disaster but the most impactful, especially concerning health and agriculture. A crucial question is being asked after the evidence has shown increases in the climate extreme events especially the temperature: how will the future climate conditions be? The present investigation examines and analyzes the future occurrence and trend of HWs in the five climatic zones of Nigeria. WRF model output extracted from CORDEX-Africa for the period 2018–2100 was compiled using maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Different HW characteristics were studied: the heat wave number, the duration, the frequency, the amplitude and the magnitude exploiting four different definitions, the temperature based 90th percentile thresholds (TN90 and TX90), the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The prediction under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has shown a spatial increase in the frequency and magnitude of HWs during different periods. In the 2050s, there will be a spatial increase and also an increase in the duration of HWs in the study area. The HWMId revealed Ultra extreme HWs when the Coastal zone will be having Super extreme HWs. The RCP8.5 revealed more dramatic and dreadful HWs from 2073. The trend showed significant increasing trends in the major parts of the country.",

keywords = "90th percentile, Climate change, Excess heat factor, Extreme events, Heat wave magnitude index, Heat waves",

author = "Ragatoa, {D. Saberma} and Ogunjobi, {K. O.} and Okhimamhe, {A. A.} and {Browne Klutse}, {Nana Ama} and Lamptey, {Benjamin L.}",

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AU - Ogunjobi, K. O.

AU - Okhimamhe, A. A.

AU - Browne Klutse, Nana Ama

AU - Lamptey, Benjamin L.

PY - 2018/9/1

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AB - Heat waves (HWs) have always been the silent natural disaster but the most impactful, especially concerning health and agriculture. A crucial question is being asked after the evidence has shown increases in the climate extreme events especially the temperature: how will the future climate conditions be? The present investigation examines and analyzes the future occurrence and trend of HWs in the five climatic zones of Nigeria. WRF model output extracted from CORDEX-Africa for the period 2018–2100 was compiled using maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Different HW characteristics were studied: the heat wave number, the duration, the frequency, the amplitude and the magnitude exploiting four different definitions, the temperature based 90th percentile thresholds (TN90 and TX90), the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The prediction under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has shown a spatial increase in the frequency and magnitude of HWs during different periods. In the 2050s, there will be a spatial increase and also an increase in the duration of HWs in the study area. The HWMId revealed Ultra extreme HWs when the Coastal zone will be having Super extreme HWs. The RCP8.5 revealed more dramatic and dreadful HWs from 2073. The trend showed significant increasing trends in the major parts of the country.

KW - 90th percentile

KW - Climate change

KW - Excess heat factor

KW - Extreme events

KW - Heat wave magnitude index

KW - Heat waves

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A predictive study of heat wave characteristics and their spatio-temporal trends in climatic zones of Nigeria

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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