A causal investigation of land use and land cover change on emerging urban heat island footprints in a mid-latitude region

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) are increasingly observed in mid-latitude regions due to rapid urbanization, yet the causal impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) on UHI dynamics remains uncertain. This study addresses this gap by employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), Landscape metrics (PLAND), Correlation analysis (Pearson’s), Convergence Cross Mapping (CCM) and Geographical CCM (GCCM) to investigate the temporal and spatial causal relationships between LULCC and UHI in Chongqing, China, from 1992 to 2022. Using Landsat TM/ETM +, OLI/TIRS, and ERA5 datasets, we analyzed land cover transformations and their effects on UHI intensity. Results revealed significant land cover changes, including a 2051.84% increase in built-up areas and a 57.17% decline in farmlands and shrubs. Mean temperatures increased from 30.27 °C to 34.17 °C, with UHIs increasing from 0.97 °C to 2.56 °C over the past three decades. The CCM results indicated that built-up areas (ρ = 0.09 ~ 0.98) and bare land (ρ = 0.05 ~ 0.75) exhibited strong positive temporal causal influence on UHI, exacerbating heat retention, while forests, waterbodies, and farmlands & shrubs showed mitigating effects. Spatially, GCCM confirmed these patterns, with built-up and bare land intensifying UHI (ρ = 0.32 ~ 0.63 and ρ = 0.25 ~ 0.42, respectively), whereas vegetation and waterbodies provided cooling. These findings stress the critical role of impervious surfaces and vegetation loss in driving UHI effects. The study highlights the need for targeted urban planning strategies, such as green infrastructure and reflective materials, to mitigate UHI impacts and enhance climate resilience in rapidly urbanizing regions.